The Odds of Death By Lightning

Jennifer Olson took this photo while running on a stormy day.

“Survival of the fittest” took on a new meaning for me this week. For a month, Boulder has been getting these daily evening thunderstorms, accompanied by varied amounts of rain. For the first week or so, I took a bike out every time it poured. I’m sure my neighbors, who of course saw me rolling out of the driveway in downpours, thought I was loony. But, I just hate canceling plans to ride.

This week, though, I hit the trails on foot during one of those storms. Swollen clouds filled the sky and shaded the earth, but they hadn’t burst yet when I started out. As I ran, I noticed lightning in the distance ahead of me. Then, I noticed it flashing south of me. I turned around and faced west, where lightning continued its show in the hills. Plus, the storm appeared to be circling north—from both sides.

I was just about surrounded and now a bit worried. I considered turning back, but another part of my mind argued that the slim chance of being electrocuted was just an excuse to cut my run short. If I turned back, I’d only end up running about a quarter of the distance I’d planned to go.

So for a minute or two, I kept my pace and kept my eyes on the sky. Those clouds were seriously pregnant. But water doesn’t worry me. I know I can handle getting drenched. I don’t know how well I’d handle high-voltage electricity coursing through my body though.

Ultimately, I realized that ignoring my inner voice could get me hurt or killed. This is how nature runs her course sometimes and, if I’m not smart enough to get out of a dangerous situation, maybe I’m not fit to live and reproduce. Accidents happen and people do get hit, but I had the opportunity and knew I should turn back.

The whole event got me wondering, though, what are the odds of getting struck by lightning? And are people who exercise outdoors daily more likely to be struck? What factors increase my chances? Would I survive? I turned around and headed home, just in time to avoid getting soaked. Then I spent some time perusing the net for some answers. Here’s what I found.

In general, the odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are one in a 775,000, while the odds of being struck once in your lifetime are, according to the U.S. National Weather Service, one in five thousand (sources offer estimated ranges between five and ten thousand, so I’m publishing five thousand to discourage you from gallivanting around in lightning storms).

Now, if you’re, say, a runner. Are your odds any different? There are an estimated 36,000,000 runners in the U.S., 5,000,000 of which are trail runners, like me. So, according to those statistics, about 7,200 of those runners will be struck in their lifetime, and 1,000 of those will be trail runners. While I was unable to discover whether runners are more likely to be hit than the average jane, common sense tells me yes. So, expect the probabilities above to be a bit off. Running with an iPod doesn’t increase the odds, but moisture plus metal in the earphones could direct the electricity to the head and cause hearing damage.

Even if you are struck, you’ll likely survive. One source says: “Lightning causes only an average of 57 deaths and 300 injuries in the United States each year.” There was a recorded total of 3,919 deaths and more than 10,000 injuries from lightning strikes between 1959 and 2009. In 2010, there were 29 lightning fatalities in the U.S.

To put it all in perspective: You are more likely to be struck by lightning than to win an Olympic medal. You are about as likely to be struck by lightning as you are to sustain an injury shaving, and you are less likely to be struck by lightning than to suffer a fatal slip in the shower.